隧道坍方风险评价的未确知测度模型及工程应用
来源期刊：中南大学学报(自然科学版)2012年第9期
论文作者：何美丽 刘霁 刘浪 周健
文章页码：3665 - 3671
关键词：隧道坍方；风险评估；未确知测度；熵；置信度识别准则
Key words：tunnel collapse; risk assessment; unascertained measure (UM); entropy; credible degree identification (CDI) criteria
摘 要：针对隧道塌方中风险等级评价中存在许多不确定性影响因素，借鉴未确知测度理论，将隧道塌方与其影响因素之间的关系作为未确知系统，提出隧道塌方风险预测的未确知测度模型，分析影响坍方诱因，选取围岩级别、开挖跨度、埋深、偏压角度、地下水状况、施工水平共6个实测指标作为隧道塌方风险预测的主要影响因子，以武广(武汉-广州)客运专线浏阳河隧道为例，构造适于隧道塌方风险预测指标的测度函数；同时引入信息熵理论确定各指标的权重，依照置信度识别准则对其风险等级进行判定，得出隧道塌方风险分级的评价结果。将已建立的未确知测度评估模型应用到青山岗隧道和马鞍山隧道坍方风险评估中，并与工程实际情况进行对比。研究结果表明：该评价方法能解决隧道塌方中风险等级评价中诸多因素不确定性问题，可在实际工程中进行推广。
Abstract: Due to the uncertain factors in evaluating the risk level for the tunnel collapse (TC), using the tunnel collapse and its impact on the relationship between factors as unascertained systems, an unascertained measure (UM) model for tunnel collapse risk prediction was established based on the uncertainty mathematics theory. Six indexes, i.e., the rock level, excavation span, depth, bias angle, groundwater conditions and the construction, were used as the discriminating factors on the basis of analysis the impact of collapse incentives. Taking the Wuhan-Guangzhou Passenger Line Liuyang River Tunnel as an example, the index weights of the factors were calculated by entropy theory, and credible degree identification (CDI) criteria were established according to the UM theory. The risk level for the tunnel collapse evaluation was obtained by the CDI criteria. Moreover, using the proposed method to the Qinshangang tunnel and Ma’anshan tunnel collapse risk assessment, the result was compared with the project actual situation. The results show that the UM model assessment results agree well with the actual ones, and they are consistent with those of the fuzzy sets evaluation method, and it can complete the risk level for the tunnel collapse assessment systematically, which can be applied to practical engineering.
何美丽1，刘霁1, 2，刘浪2，周健2
(1. 湖南城市学院 土木工程学院，湖南 益阳，413000；
2. 中南大学 资源与安全工程学院，湖南 长沙，410083)
摘 要：针对隧道塌方中风险等级评价中存在许多不确定性影响因素，借鉴未确知测度理论，将隧道塌方与其影响因素之间的关系作为未确知系统，提出隧道塌方风险预测的未确知测度模型，分析影响坍方诱因，选取围岩级别、开挖跨度、埋深、偏压角度、地下水状况、施工水平共6个实测指标作为隧道塌方风险预测的主要影响因子，以武广(武汉-广州)客运专线浏阳河隧道为例，构造适于隧道塌方风险预测指标的测度函数；同时引入信息熵理论确定各指标的权重，依照置信度识别准则对其风险等级进行判定，得出隧道塌方风险分级的评价结果。将已建立的未确知测度评估模型应用到青山岗隧道和马鞍山隧道坍方风险评估中，并与工程实际情况进行对比。研究结果表明：该评价方法能解决隧道塌方中风险等级评价中诸多因素不确定性问题，可在实际工程中进行推广。
关键词：隧道坍方；风险评估；未确知测度；熵；置信度识别准则
HE Mei-li1, LIU Ji1, 2, LIU Lang2, ZHOU Jian2
(1. College of Civil Engineering, Hunan City University, Yiyang 413000, China;
2. School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China)
Abstract:Due to the uncertain factors in evaluating the risk level for the tunnel collapse (TC), using the tunnel collapse and its impact on the relationship between factors as unascertained systems, an unascertained measure (UM) model for tunnel collapse risk prediction was established based on the uncertainty mathematics theory. Six indexes, i.e., the rock level, excavation span, depth, bias angle, groundwater conditions and the construction, were used as the discriminating factors on the basis of analysis the impact of collapse incentives. Taking the Wuhan-Guangzhou Passenger Line Liuyang River Tunnel as an example, the index weights of the factors were calculated by entropy theory, and credible degree identification (CDI) criteria were established according to the UM theory. The risk level for the tunnel collapse evaluation was obtained by the CDI criteria. Moreover, using the proposed method to the Qinshangang tunnel and Ma’anshan tunnel collapse risk assessment, the result was compared with the project actual situation. The results show that the UM model assessment results agree well with the actual ones, and they are consistent with those of the fuzzy sets evaluation method, and it can complete the risk level for the tunnel collapse assessment systematically, which can be applied to practical engineering.
Key words:tunnel collapse; risk assessment; unascertained measure (UM); entropy; credible degree identification (CDI) criteria
