Uncertainty in life cycle economical analysis of cassava-based ethanol fuel

来源期刊：中南大学学报(英文版)2005年第z2期

论文作者：冷如波 戴杜 陈晓军 王成焘

文章页码：65 - 69

Key words：uncertainty； life cycle economical analysis； cassava； ethanol fuel

Abstract: Biomass ethanol fuel is not only renewable but also environmental-friendly. Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region is developing the cassava-based ethanol fuel. Economical performance of the project is the key issue. The traditional life cycle economical analysis is just a static calculation process. Uncertainty is the character of cassava yield, cost of cassava plant, cassava price, tax rate and gasoline price, and the economical performance of the project is determined by these aspects. This study proposes an economical model of cassava-based ethanol fuel. The method of Monte Carol is used to simulate the economical performance. This method conquers the shortage of the traditional way. The results show that cassava-based ethanol fuel can get survived when the tax is exempted. Finally, the study also evaluates the potential of the economical performance.