金价牛市原因及后期走势展望

来源期刊：黄金2011年第8期

论文作者：肖云辉

文章页码：4 - 8

关键词：黄金市场； 供应； 需求； 金价

Key words：gold market； supply； demand； gold price

摘    要：21世纪的第一个10年,美元贬值是金价上涨的诱发因素,大宗矿产品价格上涨拉动金价不断创新高,黄金投资性需求推动金价加速上涨,中央银行售金格局变化、地缘政治使金价产生的波动都促使了金价牛市形成。展望金价后期走势,美国货币政策将决定牛市走向,大宗商品价格将会对金价有支撑作用,未来中央银行可能不会持续增持黄金,机构投资者减持黄金是必然趋势,而且地缘政治不会改变金价运行趋势。预测金价持续上涨的动力不足,此轮牛市行情可能会在2011年或者2012年见顶。

Abstract: In the first 10 years of 21st century,the devaluation of US dollar was the inducing factor of gold price rising,while the increase of mass minerals price and gold investment demand accelerated the tendency.Meanwhile,the gold price fluctuation caused by gold-selling pattern changes of central banks and geopolitics prompted the forming of gold price bull market.For the gold price future trend,the US monetary policy will decide the bull market trend,the mass goods price will support the gold price,central banks won’t increase gold reserves continiously,and it is inexorable trend for institutional investors to reduce gold holding,while geopolitics won’t change the gold price running trend.It is forecast that the gold price lack power for continuous rising and the current bull market will reach the peak in 2011 or 2012.