软土路基沉降发展规律及其预测

来源期刊：中南大学学报(自然科学版)2004年第1期

论文作者：赵明华 刘煜 曹文贵

文章页码：157 - 161

关键词：软土路基;沉降;成长曲线;预测方法;变权重组合预测

Key words：soft clay roadbed; settlement;“S”type growth curve; forecasting method; variableweight combination forecasting

摘    要：通过对软土路基沉降发展规律及其特点进行分析与研究,得出软土路基沉降发展基本经历了发生-发展-稳定-极限4个阶段,其固结沉降-时间过程曲线的特点与社会经济预测中的“S”型成长曲线极其相似。基于3种“S”型成长曲线模型,引入组合预测的思想,提出了一种预测路基沉降发展规律的变权重组合预测方法,并建立了软土路 基沉降的变权重组合“S”型成长模型,通过数学规划方法求解,从而可根据有限的沉降实测数据预测路基沉降发展过程。工程实例分析结果表明,使用该模型,其预测曲线与实测数据曲线基本吻合,且分析方法灵活,可用于软土路基沉降发展预测,对防治公路路基沉降,保证公路营运质量具有一定的理论与工程意义。

Abstract: This paper studies the characteristics of soft clay roadbed settlement and shows the settle ment experiences occurrence-growth-stabilization-terminal four stages and the figure of consolidation settlement-time curve is similar with the“S”type growth curve used in economic prediction. Based on the“S”type growth curve models, a variable-weight combination forecasting method was put forward with the idea of combination prediction, and a variable-weight combination“S”type growing model was established, which can forecast the future settlement in soft clay roadbed using limited measured settlement data. The analysis results of engineering practice indicate that the effect of the prediction by using this model is superior to other single models and the method is so flexible that it offers an effective and applied way in forecasting the settlement in soft clay roadbed, which shows that this method has great theoretic significance and practical value in preventing roadbed sink and guaranteeing the road behavior in service.